Head or heart AFLs grand dilemma as game takes COVID kicks

While the Tokyo Olympics succeeded in captivating global eyeballs without meaningful crowds in the stands, that eerie scenario is not realistic for the AFL grand final.

The players want crowds in the finals. The clubs want crowds and, while there are contractual obligations they must grapple with, the AFL hierarchy clearly wants substantial crowds for finals, as AFL chairman Richard Goyder indicated on Saturday.

Demons fans would love to see Max Gawn and his teammates play for a flag at the MCG this year should the club make it that far but COVID restrictions may make that difficult.Credit:Getty Images

“The clubs and players want to play in front of crowds,” Goyder, who is based in Perth, told ABC radio, on the subject of the forthcoming finals. “I had a conversation with Patrick Dangerfield earlier in the week on racism and other things and he said to me: ‘Richard, we want to play in front of crowds’.”

Tokyo didn’t have the option of shifting events to Osaka or Kyoto to find a live audience. But the AFL has that option and is preparing for a relocated finals series, if necessary.

At the last meeting of clubs and the AFL, it was near unanimous that, faced with a choice between an empty, or very sparse MCG and a full stadium in Perth or Adelaide, everyone would take the packed house.

There was, however, one telling dissent. It came from the CEO of the club that has the most to lose, culturally and potentially on the field, if the grand final or preliminary finals are shifted from the home of football to Perth and/or the Adelaide Oval.

The Dreamtime sellout at Optus Stadium in Perth drew widespread applause interstate.

Gary Pert was alone in saying that he’d rather that the relevant finals remained at the MCG, the ground that gave birth and identity to the game’s oldest club, Melbourne.

Pert was speaking for his tribe. Consider how Melbourne fans will feel on grand final day should the Demons salute before 60,000 at Perth’s Optus Stadium, or 54,000 in Adelaide, but with scant red and blue able to witness this history in the flesh.

Melbourne are the only Cinderella in the field this year. The Bulldogs had their miracle in 2016. Geelong are a usual suspect and Port Adelaide have no reason to want the grand final â€" or any final â€" to be at the ’G.

So, it would be a perverse turn of events for Melbourne to make the grand final, with a chance to win the club’s first flag since Robert Menzies was prime minister, and for the game to be relocated to another city.

Conversely, we must consider how it will look and feel if the grand final stays in Melbourne, but is played with a greatly reduced capacity.

Trent Cotchin and Damien Hardwick lift the 2020 premiership cup after last year’s grand final at the Gabba.Credit:Getty Images

Here’s a glimpse of the possible: Grand final day, September 25. The clouds are lifting in time, as Mike Brady clears his throat for his 10,000th rendition of Up There Cazaly.

The Demons are warming up in their rooms, while the Cats are in the Richmond rooms. Max Gawn is staring at his jumper, with No.11, and thinking of the late Jimmy Stynes as he contemplates the game.

Ronald Dale Barassi is up in the Great Southern Stand, wearing a red-and-blue mask that conceals his broad grin and with no one within 1.5 metres of him.

The Melbourne cheer squad are excited to be sitting in the Ponsford Stand; hardly any were there in 2000 or 1988 for the thrashings by the Bombers and Hawks. But there’s only 25,000 at the ground, including security and corporates.

The Demons beat the Cats. “It’s a grand old flag,” rings around that sparse MCG, which is subject to all manner of restrictions and necessary COVID-safe measures. The members’ bars â€" which would be overflowing with tweed jackets and moleskins in a normal grand final â€" are closed.

Yes, this isn’t the grand 13th premiership that red-and-blue people imagined. Some will feel cheated not to be there. That said, many won’t care that the MCG is 75 per cent empty if the Dees get up and they sing the song from the pub. Or the couch.

Would a grand final played before 25,000, 30,000 or 35,000, witnessed by a reasonable portion of red-and blue members and MCC types, be preferable to one in a Perth stadium that’s packed and â€" in an unusual one-off bonus â€" played in sunlight, yet still watched by a twilight or night audience back in the eastern states?

The magnificent spectacle of the Dreamtime game certainly did Perth’s prospects no harm.

And so, in the coming weeks, the AFL will have to decide about what represents the break-even point for an MCG crowd, the number required to keep the grand final â€" and other finals â€" at the venue that has a contract to host the event until 2058.

One would think that the MCG would retain the game at 50,000. The AFL executives haven’t nominated a benchmark, for good reason â€" they have no idea what the Delta variant will do next.

I would not want a grand final played before anything fewer than 40,000, irrespective of the contract and the wishes of the Victorian government, which has the power to keep the game at the MCG, but which enjoys a fraternal relationship with the league (the government’s entertainment wing).

One must consider, not simply the financial position, but the emotional and atmospheric break-even points. A one-third full MCG doesn’t cut it. The grand final is also preserved for broadcast and now digital posterity: Do we really want the premiers running a COVID-safe lap before largely empty seats?

For the broadcaster, Seven, it is surely preferable to have a full house.

That emotional break-even point, though, would be different for those of red-and-blue hue.

Jake Niall is a Walkley award-winning sports journalist and chief AFL writer for The Age.

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